Head-to-Head Ranker

Pick between two prospects. Finish all matchups to see your ranked results.

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Big Board Maker

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What is Elo โ€” and why chess?

The Elo rating system was invented by Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-American physics professor and passionate chess master, in the 1960s. FIDE adopted it in 1970, and it has since become the gold standard for ranking competitive players across chess, Go, video games, and now โ€” NBA draft scouting.

The idea is elegant: every player starts with a rating, and every head-to-head matchup updates both ratings based on the expected outcome. Picking an underdog over a top-rated prospect sends that underdog's rating surging. The system is always self-correcting.

The Chess Connection

Magnus Carlsen, the greatest chess player alive, carries an Elo of ~2830. A strong club player sits around ~1400. When Carlsen faces a fellow grandmaster at 2700, the system expects him to win โ€” so he gains only a few points if he does, but loses many if he doesn't. This asymmetry is what makes Elo so powerful: every result is weighted by how surprising it is.

This ranker works identically. Players start with seeds derived from consensus draft rankings. But your picks carry serious weight: with K=96 (3ร— the chess standard), every matchup can shift a rating by up to 96 points. After 300 choices, the board reflects your genuine preferences โ€” not just a reprint of any consensus.

The Math (simplified)

Expected Score = 1 / (1 + 10^((OpponentElo โˆ’ YourElo) / 400))
New Elo = Old Elo + K ร— (Actual โˆ’ Expected)

K = 96 Win = 1 Loss = 0

The 400 scale factor comes from chess โ€” a player 400 points higher wins ~90% of the time. K=96 means your picks move ratings fast, ensuring your personal choices dominate over the starting seeds.

Why more matchups matter

With 110+ prospects and only 150 matchups, some players won't be compared enough. With 300 matchups every player has been seen multiple times, upsets get corrected, and your true preferences emerge. The confidence bar next to each result shows how many times that player appeared โ€” a full bar means high confidence.

Chess grandmasters don't get rated after 10 games โ€” they get rated after hundreds. The same principle applies here.

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